*At a potluck recently, a good friend showed up with a tray of smoked ribs. Not the kind you grab quickly and move on, but the kind that keeps you standing there a little longer, talking, and going back for “just one more.”
Somewhere between seconds, our conversation drifted, as it tends to do when your friend is an advisor. To markets. Retirement. Money. And that question everyone has—how much is enough? Nothing formal. Just two guys talking.
He started walking me through what he’s been doing. Maxing out his 401(k), using a backdoor Roth when he can, even picking up a few tech names that he said “felt cheap right now.” He’s thoughtful, disciplined, and doing a lot of things right.
Then he said what I hear very often - he told me he felt close. That if he could just get to "a million", he’d be good.
It’s a very common way to think about retirement. You pick a number that feels safe—maybe $1 million, maybe $3 million—and once you get there, the assumption is simple: I’m fine. It’s a comforting idea, and in many ways, it makes sense.
It’s also where a lot of plans quietly go off track.
The Shift
He then looked at me, waiting for confirmation that a million would be the number that would do it. I told him something I’ve come to believe matters more than the number itself. A successful retirement isn’t just about hitting a target. It’s about what happens after.
Because the moment you stop working, you’ve effectively turned your savings into your paycheck, the question changes. It’s no longer how much you have, but how long it can last. He chuckled, took a sip of bourbon, and waved me off.
“Hans… look at me." he grinned, "I’m eating ribs and sipping bourbon. I’m not planning on living that long. I’ll be fine.”
We both laughed, because we all know someone like that. Maybe a little of ourselves in that mindset.
The Bathtub
So, I gave him something to picture.Think about draining a full bathtub.
At first, nothing really seems to happen. You pull the drain, stand there for a moment, and the water level barely moves. You might even wonder if it’s working.
That’s what early retirement often feels like. You start taking withdrawals and living off your savings, but the balance doesn’t appear to change all that much. The number that told you it was okay to retire is still there, so it feels like the plan is holding.
But like the bathtub, something changes over time.
As withdrawals continue, you begin to notice it. The balance you worked so hard to build starts to slip, often slowly at first and easy to explain away. It’s just normal spending. Or maybe a few things came up along the way—a new roof, a car, helping a child, or a healthcare expense that wasn’t fully planned for. But still manageable. Still within reason.
Then it becomes more noticeable. So you run the numbers again, maybe adjust your investments, and tell yourself it will come back.
But the level keeps dropping, and eventually it feels like it’s happening faster than it should. Faster than you expected. And now it’s not just a number on a statement—it’s starting to feel like a real risk.
Running out.
The hard part is that this rarely shows up early. It tends to appear later, midway through retirement, when you’re older and options are fewer. Going back to work sounds reasonable in theory, but in practice it’s often not. Energy changes. Opportunities change. Sometimes health makes the decision for you.
So the adjustment comes from the other side. Spending. You cut here. Delay there. Say no more often.
Not because you want to, but because you have to.
And more often than not, it traces back to the same place. The plan was built around a number, not around sustainable income.
What To Do About It
This is the part that doesn’t get talked about enough.
There’s a shift that needs to happen as retirement approaches—from building wealth to planning income and real-world expenses. Chasing returns and watching account balances is easy because it’s visible and measurable. Designing income, managing withdrawals, and planning expenses over decades is different. It’s less obvious and much easier to ignore.
For the pre-retirees and early retirees I work with, this is where we tend to spend the most time. Not just building the portfolio, but mapping how it actually gets used. What spending really looks like beyond the easy estimates. When larger expenses are likely to show up. How withdrawals may need to change over time. What happens if markets don’t cooperate early on.
And just as important, what needs to be adjusted now, while there are still options.
When the Drain Starts to Matter
What most people miss isn’t discipline or effort. It’s simply that no one ever showed them how the drawdown phase actually works. They did a great job filling the bathtub. They just never really studied the drain. And the tricky part is that you don’t notice it early. You notice it later, when the level matters more.
If you’re getting closer to retirement, or already there, it may be worth taking a second look. Not at your account balance, but at how your plan actually behaves over time. Because that’s where the difference shows up. Because the goal isn’t just getting to retirement. It’s being able to stay there, comfortably.
So enjoy the ribs. Have the bourbon.
Just make sure you understand what’s happening below the waterline.
And if you don't know or not sure, just give us a call 650-458-0312 or book a call online Start a conversation - we are here to help.
Hans
*This is a hypothetical situation based on real life examples. Names and circumstances have been changed. The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.